Forecasting

Apex can provide clients with appropriate pricing and forecast assumptions to link with their forecast approach in the USA or Apex can provide clients with a commercial forecast model for Europe (supported by expert interviews).

One of Apex’s core skills is the development of forecast models. Over the last 10 years more than 100 models have been built. In the majority of cases the excel based models are built to allow the client to use the models on an ongoing basis.

Examples include

The design and development of a forecast switching model for the launch of an orphan drug within the EMEA region.

To generate a forecast for a new product aimed at treating an inflammatory disease. This included a requirement to look at the current treatment algorithm and to understand how clinicians would position the product. It was necessary to review the current pricing and to evaluate the likely price points for the product. AHC was also required to interrogate the R&D pipeline to identify any future products that could influence the positioning of the new product. The forecast was developed for the 5EU, US and Japan. Extensive desk research was conducted by AHC’s in-house analysis team along with supporting-in-depth telephone interviews.

Designed and built a number of forecasting models with utilities to evaluate complex scenarios based on risk factors in drug development and competitor activities.